The world may face a critical copper shortage that threatens to derail the global transition to clean energy and advanced digital infrastructure, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned this week in its latest Global Trade Update.
Copper, now labeled a “strategic raw material” by the UN agency, is vital to electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, AI infrastructure, and smart grids. Yet, the global supply is failing to keep pace with booming demand — expected to rise by more than 40% by 2040. Experts say meeting that demand would require up to 80 new copper mines and a staggering $250 billion in investment by 2030.
Professor Daniel Franks of the University of Queensland described copper as “probably the most important metal of the energy transition,” noting its fundamental role in electricity and communication systems due to its ability to conduct electrons.
The situation presents both a warning and an opportunity for resource-rich but industrially underdeveloped countries. Uganda, for example, has launched a bold initiative to revive copper production, handing over the historic Kilembe Mines in Kasese to the Uganda National Mining Company and private partner Sarrai Group. Minister of Energy and Mineral Development Ruth Nankabirwa called it “a new chapter in Uganda’s mining sector.” With over 4 million tons of copper ore and untapped cobalt potential, Kilembe could position Uganda as a key player in the global supply chain.
However, a deeper issue looms. According to UNCTAD, more than half of the world’s copper reserves lie in just five countries—Australia, Chile, Peru, DR Congo, and Russia—yet the majority of refining and value-added production occurs in China, which now imports 60% of copper ore and produces over 45% of refined copper globally.
This uneven value chain underscores long-standing trade imbalances. Many developing nations remain trapped at the bottom, exporting raw materials without the infrastructure, policy support, or investment needed to process and manufacture higher-value copper products. Tariff systems exacerbate the problem: while duties on refined copper remain under 2%, tariffs on finished goods like wires and sheets can climb to 8%, discouraging industrial upgrading.
“Copper is no longer just a commodity – it’s a strategic asset,” said Luz María de la Mora, Director of UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities. “Its market exposes the power asymmetries that still shape global trade. We must scale up recycling, invest in value addition, and dismantle barriers that limit opportunity.”
Recycling is already gaining ground, with secondary sources accounting for 20% of refined copper in 2023—about 4.5 million tons. Countries like the U.S., Germany, and Japan lead in scrap exports, while China, Canada, and South Korea dominate imports. For developing economies, enhancing recycling capacity could reduce reliance on imports, cut emissions, and support circular economies.
Ultimately, UNCTAD presents copper as a litmus test for future trade strategy—how nations will navigate supply insecurity, trade tensions, and the urgent need to industrialize sustainably. The agency calls for smarter policies, streamlined permitting, regional value chains, and investment in infrastructure and skills to ensure that all countries can benefit from the green and digital revolutions.
