The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised concerns over an impending sugar shortage in Kenya, citing a sharp decline in sugarcane farming and reduced processing capacity. In its latest Sugar Annual Report released on April 18, 2025, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects a 19.8% drop in Kenya’s sugar production for the 2025/2026 marketing year—from 810,000 metric tonnes to 650,000 tonnes.
The report warns that the reduction in output is expected to push up retail prices in the short term, though increased imports are likely to stabilize the market later in the year. Kenya has already witnessed a rise in sugar prices since January 2025, with ex-factory, wholesale, and retail prices all trending upward.
The production shortfall is largely attributed to a significant decrease in land under sugarcane cultivation—falling from 190,000 to 150,000 hectares—due to aggressive harvesting and poor crop maturity levels. Most of Kenya’s sugarcane is produced by approximately 320,000 smallholder farmers in the Western and Lake Victoria Basin regions.
The USDA report further notes that Kenya’s average cane yields declined from 56 to 51 metric tonnes per hectare due to adverse weather conditions. As a result, millers are struggling to secure enough cane to operate at full capacity.
To cover the supply gap, Kenya is expected to increase sugar imports by nearly 38% to 600,000 metric tonnes in the 2025/2026 season. These imports will largely come from the COMESA and EAC regions, benefiting from tariff preferences, although they remain capped at 350,000 metric tonnes under an existing safeguard set to expire in November 2025.
Sugar consumption is also expected to rise slightly, reaching 1.25 million metric tonnes, fueled by household demand and growth in the hospitality sector. However, sugar from non-regional sources still faces a steep 100% tariff unless specifically waived by the Kenyan government.
Kenya’s state-owned mills—accounting for just 8% of the market—continue to struggle with inefficiency, debt, and outdated technology, while private millers are gaining ground through modernization, better extraction rates, and farmer support programs.
